2023 ELECTION POLITICAL ANALYSIS: POSSIBLE EFFECT OF THE FAILURE OF PETER OBI AND KWANKWASO TO MERGE by Olabanji Joel

POSSIBLE EFFECT OF THE FAILURE OF PETER OBI AND KWANKWASO TO MERGE by Olabanji Joel

"I don't accept political activities without proper plan and deep reasoning because I do not care about any political party. I care about the people to be governed by the politicians and about what the politicians would do to/for the masses after getting elected. My talks are from a sociological standpoint rather than picking a particular side or dogma or ideology. I just want everyone to have a better life irrespective of their background, ethnicity, religious belief, age, gender etc but this wont be possible without having a leader with the heart to serve"- Olabanji Joel

Far beyond the noise, emotions and trolls on social media, the February 2023 election has become a very daring election with emergence of whosoever wins being a sound of triumph for the youths or the continuation of old styled leadership and failed system. This election and all the trends on various platforms has definitely kept many of our politicians on their toes with the understanding that this is not politics as usual but the victory would be for the candidate who is best in playing this kind of political game and someone who understands those that truly carries the voter's card and ready to vote at any circumstance.

"Despite the large march in several states in the country in support of Peter Obi and also the large crowd being pulled by Kwankwaso in several states and levels, I have a strong feeling that if Kwankwaso and Peter Obi fails to merge to become one before the election date, Bola Ahmed Tinubu might end up winning the 2023 presidential election". Also, it seems Atiku Abubakar has been working to have Kwankwaso and several politicians across the country work with him, if this happens the n the power will definitely return to the North.

Kwankwaso and Atiku would possibly share the votes from the North if they do not join forces together especially that from Kano which usually have a significant impact on the election result but Atiku might get more vote compared to Kwankwaso because he would spend more and would possibly buy more voters. However, Kwankwaso would get majority of his vote from Kano with more voters than any other candidate. Tinubu on the other hand might  have a significant vote in the region because of the strong influence of the vice he has chosen and the support of the Northern state Governors. Peter Obis's vice is a learned man and a seasoned politician but can pull little or no vote from the North when compared to what others might get from the region.  I am convinced that the votes Peter Obi would get from the North might mostly even be due to his popularity and not that of his Vice who happens to be from the region. 

The votes from the North would be shared by APC, PDP and NNPP with Labour party having a possibly low vote from the region. On a norm, the North would not vote for someone from the South East and the Northern voters are not many on social media when compared to other region, these people vote for people they have probably been asked to vote for by either their religious leaders or a prominent person from their region and that makes it all difficult for the Labour party candidate and other candidates to have a significant amount of vote from the North.

Now to the vote from the South which is hard to predict would be shared by PDP, APC, LP and others. However, APC might be at higher advantage to get more vote because the Southwest is considered to be 'owned' by the party. South-east would probably support their own but do not be surprised if LP does not rake in about half of their vote as both the south-east and south-south are both the strong holds of the PDP.  PDP might get more votes from south-south as usual but this might be difficult if the lingering problems in the party are not solved and if Jonathan declares his support for APC which is probably going to be the great move from the political party(fingers crossed). The South is the most divided region and the vote is going to be shared amongst the major contestants with APC winning the region. 

APC would probably get a massive vote from all regions except the south-east but this would not  stop the party from winning because of the number of votes they would have hopefully gotten from the North and South unless a strong force is built to counter them before the election day.

To be sincere, I previously did not see Atiku in this presidential race because he seems tired of contesting to me but he seems all geared up again and has increased his work. The internal crisis in PDP is costing them a lot and they have allowed it to drag for too long. Atiku has been nonchalant with his presidential campaign both online and offline as  he is acting like he has won already until recently whereas even the assumed ailing Tinubu and the man who has presently won the heart of the youth, Peter Obi and Kwankwaso who is loved by several persons from the North are daily working to ensure they win the presidential election come 2023. They are using their resources including their time and money to work for this. 

In summary, the chances that APC would still rule the nation for another 8 years after Buhari's tenure until a great force is formed is high despite the fuel scarcity, government induced Naira scarcity, inflation, insecurity etc. 

WE DO NOT WANT TO EAT "AGBADO AND CASSAVA" BUT WE ARE PRESENTLY TREADING THE PATH. I HUMBLY URGE EVERYONE READING THIS TO THINK ABOUT THE PRESENT SITUATION OF THINGS IN NIGERIA AND THE FUTURE OF OUR BELOVED COUNTRY BEFORE CASTING YOUR VOTE FOR ANY CANDIDATE. OUR DECISION THIS TIME WILL DETERMINE IF NIGERIA WILL RISE TO BECOMING A GREAT NATION ONCE AGAIN OR FOREVER REMAIN A FAILED STATE.

Olabanji Joel's short analysis